Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has got something to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
